Fact Sheet | News Release
Executive Su mmary
The Michigan Legislature has before it a box of bills that would allow all Michigan residents—including undocumented immigrants and those who can not prove their legal presence—the opportunity to obtain a driver ’ sulfur license or state identification card. The Drive SAFE ( Safety, Access, Freedom and the Economy ) bills,1 introduced by Senators Stephanie Chang ( D-Detroit ) and Winnie Brinks ( D-Grand Rapids ), along with Representatives Alex Garza ( D-Taylor ) and Rachel Hood ( D-Grand Rapids ), would bring Michigan law up to speed with that of 14 early states2 that admit residents who meet all other requirements to obtain a driver ’ randomness license.
Until 2008, all Michiganders had the ability to obtain a driver ’ second license after passing a driver ’ s trial and meet early requirements. After 2005, many states amended their driver ’ s license laws following the REAL ID Act, which established standards for driver ’ mho licenses and documents used for federal purposes ( like boarding a plane in the United States ). In late 2007, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox issued an opinion that stated undocumented immigrants in Michigan should not be considered residents and therefore were not eligible for driver ’ mho licenses.3 In 2008, the Secretary of State complied with the opinion and the state of matter Legislature codified this opinion into law .
If the Drive SAFE legislation were to become law, the Michigan League for Public Policy estimates that over the course of three years, 55,000 Michiganders would apply for a driver ’ s license, leading to 20,000 fomite purchases. Reinstating driver ’ second licenses for undocumented immigrants would boost state of matter gross by $ 13.5 million and contribute $ 12 million in recurring gross, $ 9 million of which would be from sales and natural gas taxes related to vehicle ownership. Over the course of 10 years, this policy would generate about $ 100 million for the express of Michigan. This tax income would offset Secretary of State costs for staffing, including train and translation services.4 Additional benefits of this legislation include :
- 20,000 more Michigan drivers would be insured and have passed driver’s tests. To register a passenger vehicle in Michigan, one must have auto insurance. Roads are safer and accidents are resolved more smoothly when more drivers have passed a standardized driving test and are insured.
- Michiganders would see their annual auto insurance premiums go down by approximately $20. When more drivers are insured, everyone’s cost of auto insurance decreases. Across the country, states that allow undocumented immigrants to apply for driver’s licenses see lower annual premiums; doing so in Michigan would save Michiganders about $20 a year. Although this is a modest decrease, that is enough to pay for a car wash in the thick of Michigan winter!
- 55,000 more Michiganders would be able to accomplish everyday activities more easily and with dignity. Our undocumented neighbors are business owners, parents, employees and caregivers. Allowing access to a driver’s license means that those who do obtain one can engage in their communities, participate in our state economy more fully and complete everyday tasks without fear.
- More residents would participate in Michigan’s local economy. Allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for driver’s licenses would support Michigan’s booming agricultural industry. In addition, access to a driver’s license means access to amenities and opportunities beyond one’s immediate community, including new businesses and higher-paying jobs.
Uptake and Increased Revenue
Within three years of implementation, an calculate 55,000 of the 110,000 Michigan residents who can not prove their legal presence and are of driving historic period would apply for a driver ’ second license.5 These newfangled licenses would bring in $ 1.4 million in fees to the express over this time frame .
Among those newly eligible to obtain a driver ’ mho license, an estimate 20,000 people would purchase a car. Vehicle registrations, titles and license plates would generate $ 3 million over the course of the first three years of implementation. annual vehicle registrations for these newly registered vehicles would generate $ 2.7 million each year .
Sales and gas taxes would increase by $ 1.6 million and $ 7.5 million, respectively, in the first three years of implementation. These estimates are recurring revenues based on individual-level pulmonary tuberculosis for the average driver in Michigan. Although sales taxes on car-related purchases may shift spend from other types of goods and services, this calculate merely considers extra spend on motor vehicles and parts and does not take into account extra spending based on increase mobility or wages. Over a 10-year time period, changes implemented through the Drive SAFE bills would generate about $ 100 million in tax income for the express of Michigan .
Under current law, accomplishing casual tasks while unaccredited is dangerous not only for drivers but for everyone on the road. Over a biennial period, the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety found that one in five fatal crashes involved an unaccredited or invalidly accredited driver.6 In addition, AAA found that while most drivers did not leave the scene of a crash, unaccredited drivers did so closely 10 times more much compared with validly licensed drivers. analysis of a ten ’ s worth of pedestrian-motor vehicle fateful crashes exemplifies this demeanor, revealing that an invalid license was a lead gene associated with a hit-and-run specifically.7 Therefore, removing this incentive for some drivers to flee will likely decrease hit-and-runs in Michigan. What ’ s more, inquiry on this exit has demonstrated that undocumented immigrants across states are already careful drivers—and are flush safer drivers in states that allow them to obtain a license.8 Data from California substantiates this tendency : after allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain driver ’ second licenses, county rates of collisions remained ceaseless, however the rate of hit-and-run crashes decreased after the law was changed to allow everyone access to a driver ’ mho license.9 The collective guard of our Michigan road would lone improve if undocumented immigrants were allowed to pass a driver ’ mho test, obtain a license and have car insurance .
Auto Insurance premiums
In summation to benefiting from safer roads, current drivers would see a minor decrease in their annual car policy premiums. With more accredited drivers will come more register vehicles ; for people purchasing car insurance in Michigan, the cost of policy would decrease. In addition, the average car indemnity costs are lower in states that allow undocumented immigrants the ability to obtain driver ’ randomness licenses compared with states that do not.10 One full-bodied exemplar analyzed over a decade ’ s deserving of data across states and determined that on median, in states that lifted restrictions on driver ’ mho licenses for undocumented immigrants, all drivers ’ annual price of indemnity decreased by $ 20.11
Allowing the 110,000 Michigan residents who can not prove their legal presence to apply for a driver ’ mho license will undoubtedly make day by day tasks easier and safer for those who do obtain one. These activities include getting groceries, visiting family members in the hospital, taking children to receive a inoculation, driving to church and lease business space. Access to state-issued identification means that undocumented Michigan residents can regularly participate in our country economy more in full. Restricting opportunity to travel well not alone changes individuals ’ and families ’ driving habits by narrowing their spoke of travel but besides restricts their ability to shop locally and contribute to the country economy.12
Michigan ’ s $ 100 billion agrarian industry benefits greatly from immigrants, including migrant farm workers. In fact, 20 % of all Michigan workers in farm, fish and forestry are immigrants.13 An estimated 5 % of undocumented laborers in Michigan are working in these occupations.14 It is not surprise that because of this representation and the indigence for all employees to get to and from cultivate easily and safely, the Michigan Farm Bureau supports the state of matter allowing access to driver ’ s licenses for undocumented immigrants.15 Additionally, entree to a driver ’ s license affects the measure of money Michiganders earn and spend. When people can more well get to and from their jobs, they are able to work more hours and earn more money. With improved mobility among workers, the british labour party grocery store would function more smoothly because employees would be able to more well find jobs—including higher-paying ones that better match their skills—and employers would have a larger pool of applicants to choose from when filling positions.16 Furthermore, those without driver ’ randomness licenses may be limited in both the regions in which they shop ( primarily near home or work, e.g. ) and purchases that require recognition, such as new vehicles, medication, alcohol or cigarettes. On the other hand, residents with driver ’ sulfur licenses will likely broaden the range of businesses they buy from and increase the total of money spent locally in Michigan .
Number of undocumented immigrants of driving age and the number who would obtain a driver’s license during the first three years of implementation
Before narrowing to the number of undocumented immigrants of legal drive age, we begin with the weighted median of two estimates of the total number of undocumented immigrants in Michigan from the Center on Migration Studies17 ( CMS ) and the Pew Research Center.18 The weights applied are based on what share of the sum Michigan population ( 9,995,915 in 2018 as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ) is undocumented according to these two estimates. The CMS estimate uses microdata from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series ( IPUMS ) that is reported through the 2017 American Community Survey ( ACS ) and is recognized as a dependable estimate of local-level data. The Pew estimate is 2017 data based on augment U.S. Census Bureau datum. Our weighted average was 115,590 people.
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To estimate the entire act of undocumented immigrants who are eligible for a driver ’ randomness license because they are 16 years erstwhile or older, we beginning estimate the share of the entire undocumented population in Michigan who are in this age crop. Based on CMS ’ estimate for the count of undocumented immigrants who are 16 years or older ( 108,978 ) —legal driving senesce in Michigan—we calculated the percentage of the undocumented population in this crop in both the CMS and Pew data. We use the slant modal of these two percentages to obtain our final estimate that 94.48 % of 115,590 undocumented immigrants are over the age of 16. This results in 109,211 undocumented immigrants who are residents of Michigan and are of driving age .
We estimate a 50 % take-up rate for driver ’ randomness licenses among undocumented immigrants in Michigan within the first three years of execution, resulting in 54,606 new driver ’ s licenses issued during this timeframe. This take-up rate is based on the experiences of other states that have passed legislation to allow undocumented immigrants to obtain driver ’ mho licenses,19 estimates from other states on driver ’ s license take-up and data on Michigan drivers. After two full years of implementation, three out of five states reporting go steady between 34 % and 40 % take-up ( 34 % in California, 36 % in Washington, D.C., and 40 % in Illinois ). Of states that had reported a full three years of implementation, Nevada, which had gloomy take-up rates across all three years, saw 25 % take-up and Illinois saw a jump to 47 % take-up. Based on these take-up rates, the Fiscal Policy Institute in New York conducted a robust fiscal analysis on the shock of lifting restrictions on driver ’ sulfur licenses using an estimated 50 % take-up.20
We compare Michigan data with that of Illinois and New York in particular to establish our take-up rate. All of these states have a high gear number of lane-miles, or miles of roads that are intended for driving. This is evidenced by the estimated lane-miles in each submit as reported by the Federal Highway Administration in 2018 : out of all states, Illinois ranks third ( 307,000 miles ) and New York ranks 12th ( 239,000 miles ) ; Michigan ranks between those states at 10th with 256,000 miles.21 This is not surprise given much of these states is made up of rural area and cultivated land, and would require a vehicle to access .
Although Michigan may be similar to Illinois and New York in terms of lane-mileage, the handiness of public transportation will influence how many residents use cars and apply for a driver ’ sulfur license. Both Illinois and New York have extensive populace transportation systems in Chicago and New York City, respectively, which is something Michigan lacks. Yet, this handiness did not impede the three-year take-up rate in Illinois ( nor did it in appear to in Washington, D.C., which is entirely urban and whose transit system is besides notably robust ). The New York analysis notes that 57 % of New York City adults do have a driver ’ randomness license, which is taken into account when establishing their estimated 50 % take-up rate. Because Michigan does not have as extensive a public transportation system as Illinois, Washington, D.C., or New York, we would expect that the take-up rate for driver ’ sulfur licenses would be higher in Michigan given that access to an alternative shape of exile is not a much a limiting factor .
finally, the proportion of current pornographic drivers in a state provides context for the utility in having, and concern in obtaining, a driver ’ south license. Based on data from the Federal Highway Administration and the U.S. Census Bureau, 79 % of adult residents in New York have a driver ’ s license and 86 % of adults in Illinois do ; in Michigan, this phone number is 91 %. A higher proportion of adults presently driving in Michigan compared with Illinois and New York is another reason that we would expect our take-up pace for driver ’ second licenses among the undocumented community to be a button-down estimate that is comparable to that of the higher goal of the discernible three-year data .
Number of new cars on the road
To project the number of new cars purchased and registered in Michigan, we assume 36.6 % of those who obtain driver ’ mho licenses would purchase a car.22 This share is based on the fiscal Policy Institute in New York ’ sulfur analysis of CMS IPUMS data ( 2010-2013 ), which looks at vehicle possession in other immigrant households.20 This analysis assumes that given access to driver ’ mho licenses, undocumented immigrants would purchase vehicles at the like rate when besides taking into account family income. Applying this share to the issue of extra licenses expected in the first three years of execution projects 19,986 newly registered vehicles in this timeframe .
As is outlined in the mesa below, projected tax income over the run of 10 years post-implementation would include fees from extra driver ’ mho licenses ( and renewals ), vehicle registrations ( and renewals ), vehicle titles, vehicle license plates, and sales and gas taxes related to vehicle use. As noted in the report, sales tax here includes that which is applied to motor vehicles and parts, but not that which is applied to other purchases made by new drivers that would besides be subject to sales tax. These would probable increase with greater mobility and higher wages. Any extra assumptions are included below .
Revenue from the first three years of implementation
All Michigan driver ’ second licenses are initially $ 25 ; we multiplied this total by the stick out number of extra licenses issued. We besides multiplied the fees for a vehicle title ( $ 15 ), standard license plate ( $ 5 ) and average fomite registration ( which is estimated at $ 135 by the Michigan Department of Transportation23 ) by the stick out number of extra vehicles purchased in the beginning three years of execution .
extra gross from sales and gas-related taxes ( i.e., gasoline tax and sales tax on boast ) are estimated using individual-level consumption data. Based on 2018 Bureau of Economic Analysis ( BEA ) total per caput personal consumption expenditures in the department of state of Michigan, residents spend $ 1,299 per year on motor vehicles and parts ( defined as “ purchases of new motive vehicles, net purchases of use centrifugal vehicles, and purchases of centrifugal vehicle parts and accessories ” ) .24
It is significant that we consider income in this character of our analysis, american samoa well. Based on the CMS 2017 IPUMS data, an estimated 23.5 % of undocumented immigrants in Michigan have an income that is at or below the federal poverty flush ( $ 12,140 for a one pornographic ). To examine vehicle-related purchases and consumption by income and determine whether consumers with lower incomes spend substantially less on vehicles than is captured in the BEA estimate, we use the 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey, which provides data on expenditures, income and demographic characteristics of consumers in the United States.25 Based on the survey data, those who earned $ 11,695 after taxes ( income in the lowest 20 % for sketch respondents ) spent an average of $ 1,253 on vehicle purchases. Because this total is therefore exchangeable to the Michigan-specific BEA calculate, we multiply the BEA estimate of $ 1,299 in annual consumption by the project number of modern vehicles purchased and apply the 6 % sales tax. Note this does not include any specific “ check engine repairs ” as sales tax is not paid on labor in Michigan, and parts are included in the BEA estimate .
Our analysis of gas-related taxes assumes the extra 20,000 cars that are registered were built in the last decade. The corporate modal Fuel Economy ( CAFE ) standard for fresh vehicles is reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics in miles per gallon ( mpg ) .26 The average mpg, taking into account both passenger cars and unhorse trucks, from 2009 to 2016 ( most holocene data ) is 28.9 mpg. ( note that if the cars purchased are older, this average mpg would decrease, in turn raising project expending on boast and increasing associate gross ; if newer, the change by reversal. ) The Federal Highway Administration estimates that the average driver drives 13,500 miles per year.27 These numbers give us 467.13 gallons per year in gasoline pulmonary tuberculosis for the modal vehicle made from 2009-2016. Using a point-in-time estimate based on the average prices in November 2019, we assume the price of flatulence is $ 2.50 per gallon and the average driver will spend $ 1,167.82 on flatulence per year. Applying Michigan ’ s 26.3 cent-per-gallon boast tax, the average driver will contribute $ 307.14 in taxes on boast to the submit of Michigan per year. By multiplying this sum by the project number of new vehicles purchased, we obtain our calculate increase in natural gas taxes over the inaugural three years of execution. To obtain an annual amount of sales tax on boast per average driver, we multiply the come spent on natural gas per year per consumer by 6 % sales tax ( $ 70.07 ). We multiply this measure by the project number of new vehicles purchased to obtain the estimate extra sales tax tax income from accelerator purchases in the first gear three years of implementation .
Revenue compared to additional costs
To keep up with an addition in the numeral of Michigan residents who seek to obtain driver ’ south licenses and record vehicles, the Secretary of State will be required to increase its staff and provide trail across the state. There are a phone number of states whose experiences we can draw from in estimating these costs. For case, Maryland projected 230,000 new licenses would be issued over a four-year period, requiring 10 permanent and 55 temp staff, and estimated its costs at $ 8.8 million. Illinois projected it would issue from 250,000 to 1 million new licenses, hire 100 people ( including call operators for appointments ) and require $ 800,000 in the first class and $ 250,000 per annum thereafter.28 Based on the estimate number of newfangled licenses that would be issued in Michigan—55,000, or approximately one draw of what Maryland and Illinois predicted—the projected gross would easily compensate for any extra costs, including staff, outreach and translation services .
Annual revenue and 10-year estimate
Driver ’ mho licenses must be renewed every four years in Michigan, at $ 18 per reclamation. As it is probable that most of those who obtained a driver ’ second license in the first three years of execution will have renewed their license doubly in 10 years, our 10-year estimate assumes that the all of the 55,000 newly licensed Michiganders have done so ( just under $ 2 million in reclamation fees ). Fees for vehicle titles and standard license plates are paid once.
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Vehicles must be registered in Michigan annually. We assume the same fomite adjustment cost at $ 135 and that all drivers are again registering their vehicles. Note this does not take into history any extra vehicles that these drivers may register in any given year. Sales tax and gas-related taxes ( see gross from the inaugural three years of execution, above ) are annual sources of gross and these numbers are reflected as such in the mesa below .
- Michigan Legislature, Senate, SB 631, introduced November 5, 2019, http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2019-2020/billintroduced/Senate/pdf/2019-SIB-0631.pdf.
- Along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, 14 states already provide access to a driver’s license or state identification card. These include: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington.
- Attorney General Mike Cox, “Permanent Residency Requirement for Driver’s Licenses, Opinion No. 7210,” Michigan Department of the Attorney General, December 7, 2007, https://www.ag.state.mi.us/opinion/datafiles/2000s/op10286.htm.
- See Methodology for information regarding costs of implementation.
- See Methodology for data sources and estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants, uptake of licenses and vehicles and revenue generated from driver’s licenses, car registration, sales tax and gas tax.
- “Unlicensed to Kill,” AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, November 2011, https://www.adtsea.org/webfiles/fnitools/documents/aaa-unlicensed-to-kill.pdf.
- Kara E. MacLeod et al., “Factors associated with hit-and-run pedestrian fatalities and driver identification,” Accident Analysis & Prevention 45 (2012), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.08.001.
- J. Alejandro Tirado-Alcaraz, “Issuing Driver’s Licenses to Undocumented Immigrants in Rhode Island: Policy Analysis,” p. 21, Latino Policy Institute at Roger Williams University, June 2016, https://www.rwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/lpi/drivers-license_report-legal.pdf. Using a regression analysis, the author identifies a statistically significant correlation between the percentage of undocumented immigrants in a state and the number of traffic fatalities—states with more undocumented immigrants saw fewer traffic fatalities. Further, after stratifying states by whether or not they allow undocumented immigrants to obtain a driving document (a driver’s license, e.g.), the study finds fewer traffic fatalities, on average, among states that do not restrict driving documentation based on immigration status compared with states requiring either documented legal presence or a valid SSN.
- A. J. Benson et al., “Hit-and-Run Crashes: Prevalence, Contributing Factors, and Countermeasures,” AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, 2017, https://aaafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/18-0058_Hit-and-Run-Brief_FINALv2.pdf.
- J. Alejandro Tirado-Alcaraz, “Issuing Driver’s Licenses to Undocumented Immigrants in Rhode Island: Policy Analysis,” p. 20, Latino Policy Institute at Roger Williams University, June 2016, https://www.rwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/lpi/drivers-license_report-legal.pdf. The author demonstrates a statistically significant correlation between the percentage of undocumented immigrants and the average auto insurance costs for states with restrictions and states without.
- Mauricio Cáceres and Kenneth P. Jameson, “The effects on insurance costs of restricting undocumented immigrants’ access to driver licenses,” Southern Economic Journal 81, no. 4 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12022. This savings is statistically significant and this estimate is adjusted for inflation from $2009 to $2019.
- Mary C. King, “Assessment of the Socio-economic Impacts of SB 1080 on Immigrant Groups,” Oregon Department of Transportation, June 2011, https://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/Programs/ResearchDocuments/SB1080.pdf.
- Analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015 American Community Survey 1-year PUMS data by the American Immigration Council, October 13, 2017, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-in-michigan.
- Based on Center for Migration Studies estimates derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey 1-year PUMS data, accessed November 8, 2019, http://data.cmsny.org/state.html.
- “Policy & Politics: Limited Purpose Operator’s License #100,” Michigan Farm Bureau, accessed November 8, 2019, https://www.michfb.com/MI/Policy_and_Politics/Policies/Transportation/Limited_Purpose_Operators_License/. This policy can also be found in the Michigan Farm Bureau 2019 Policy Book, accessible here: https://www.michfb.com/MI/uploadedFiles/Content/Policy_and_Politics/Farm_Bureau_Policy/2019%20POLICY%20BOOK%20-%20Digital.pdf.
- Sarah E. Hendricks, “Living in Car Culture Without a License,” American Immigration Council, April 2014, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/sites/default/files/research/living_in_car_culture_without_a_license_3.pdf.
- “State-Level Unauthorized Population and Eligible-to-Naturalize Estimates,” Center for Migration Studies, Accessed September 25, 2019, http://data.cmsny.org/state.html.
- “Unauthorized immigrant population trends for states, birth countries and regions,” Pew Research Center: Hispanic Trends, June 12, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/unauthorized-trends/.
- David Dyssegaard Kallick and Cyierra Roldan, “Take-Up Rates for Driver’s Licenses: When Unauthorized Immigrants Can Get a License, How Many Do?” Fiscal Policy Institute, January 31, 2017, http://fiscalpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FPI-Brief-on-Driver-Licenses-2017.pdf.
- David Dyssegaard Kallick and Cyierra Roldan, “Expanding Access to Driver’s Licenses: Getting a License Without Regard to Immigration Status, Fiscal Policy Institute, January 31, 2017, http://fiscalpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FINAL-Drivers-licenses-report-2017.pdf.
- “Highway Statistics 2017: Estimated Lane Miles,” Federal Highway Administration, August 23, 2018, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2017/hm48.cfm.
- Note that new cars means new vehicle purchases, not necessarily a new vehicle model.
- “Fast Facts 2019,” Michigan Department of Transportation, February 2019, https://www.michigan.gov/documents/mdot/MDOT_fastfacts02-2011_345554_7.pdf.
- “Consumer Spending by State: Personal Consumption Expenditure by State, 2018,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, October 3, 2019, https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/state.
- “Quintiles of income before taxes: Annual expenditure means, shares, standard errors, and coefficients of variation,” Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2018, September 2019, https://www.bls.gov/cex/2018/combined/quintile.pdf.
- “Average Fuel Efficiency of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles [Table],” Bureau of Transportation Statistics, May 2018, https://www.bts.gov/content/average-fuel-efficiency-us-light-duty-vehicles.
- “Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group,” Federal Highway Administration, March 29, 2018, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm.
- “Deciding Who Drives,” Pew Charitable Trusts, August 2015, https://www.pewtrusts.org/-/media/assets/2015/08/deciding-who-drives.pdf. Both Maryland and Illinois currently allow residents to obtain driver’s licenses, regardless of whether they can demonstrate legal presence.
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